Today: WN 335 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–54%.

Safest bet today WN 335 DAL 08:35 → BWI 12:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2077 DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 335 Southwest	DAL 08:35	BWI 12:30	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 113 Southwest	DAL 10:26	DCA 14:17	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1536 Southwest	DAL 11:00	BWI 14:55	28%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 524 American Flight history →	DFW 10:10	IAD 14:03	29%	7%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
WN 2559 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 10:25	DCA 14:20	29%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	DCA 12:42	31%	5%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
AA 2399 American	DFW 09:32	DCA 13:27	31%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DFW 09:57	DCA 13:59	31%	6%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:31	33%	8%	0.3%	86%worse than usual
WN 4418 Southwest	DAL 14:21	DCA 18:12	33%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 952 Southwest	DAL 12:55	BWI 17:04	33%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2520 American	DFW 15:02	DCA 19:20	35%	13%	0.5%	no record
AA 1629 American Flight history →	DFW 10:51	BWI 14:56	35%	11%	0.7%	68%
AA 2669 American	DFW 11:00	BWI 15:18	35%	14%	0.7%	no record
WN 26 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 14:25	DCA 18:15	35%	11%	0.7%	47%
F9 3788 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:25	BWI 13:40	35%	12%	1.2%	72%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DFW 11:54	DCA 15:59	36%	9%	0.6%	70%
WN 1344 Southwest	DAL 16:53	DCA 20:43	36%	11%	0.8%	no record
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:15	IAD 21:24	37%	7%	0.4%	79%worse than usual
WN 3014 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:55	DCA 20:50	38%	13%	0.8%	24%
WN 1295 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:05	DCA 22:55	39%	13%	0.6%	22%
WN 2767 Southwest	DAL 16:01	BWI 19:58	39%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 1863 American Flight history →	DFW 14:52	IAD 19:02	40%	11%	0.6%	70%worse than usual
AA 472 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	DCA 21:31	42%	14%	0.7%	65%
AA 2805 American Flight history →	DFW 15:26	BWI 19:45	42%	15%	0.5%	79%worse than usual
AA 2752 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	DCA 22:59	42%	16%	0.6%	62%
WN 247 Southwest	DAL 20:41	BWI 00:44	42%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 3004 American Flight history →	DFW 15:17	BWI 19:24	43%	16%	0.5%	57%
WN 1888 Southwest	DAL 20:50	BWI 00:50	44%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 1360 Southwest	DAL 20:11	DCA 00:02	44%	13%	1.3%	no record
AA 1904 American Flight history →	DFW 14:36	IAD 18:37	45%	13%	0.6%	61%
AA 2251 American Flight history →	DFW 19:37	BWI 23:43	50%	16%	2.1%	62%worse than usual
AA 2254 American	DFW 18:46	IAD 22:39	51%	11%	0.7%	no record
AA 1132 American Flight history →	DFW 18:44	IAD 22:52	52%	11%	0.7%	47%
AA 2077 American Flight history →	DFW 20:00	DCA 23:59	54%	14%	1.8%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON