Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4660 at 22:14, 32%.

Safest bet today AA 4660 DCA 22:14 → LGA 23:44 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest DL 5752 DCA 19:40 → LGA 21:04 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4660 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:14	LGA 23:44	32%	19%	1.8%	70%
AA 4719 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:38	LGA 00:03	33%	13%	1.3%	67%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:06	LGA 16:40	38%	14%	1.2%	64%
YX 4569 Republic	DCA 15:15	LGA 16:47	39%	12%	1.1%	no record
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:59	LGA 15:31	39%	14%	0.8%	62%
YX 4636 Republic	DCA 17:24	LGA 18:59	46%	20%	1.3%	no record
AA 4702 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:10	LGA 19:40	47%	28%	2.2%	51%
YX 4583 Republic	DCA 18:45	LGA 20:22	49%	21%	1.5%	no record
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:40	LGA 18:59	51%	28%	1.4%	51%
DL 5768 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:40	LGA 21:59	55%	24%	1.9%	54%
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:40	LGA 21:04	55%	29%	2.1%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON