Today: UA 1073 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–50%.

Safest bet today UA 1073 IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 3072 BWI 20:35 → FLL 23:20 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 18 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1073 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MIA 11:35	14%	5%	0.3%	87%
AA 401 American Flight history →	DCA 09:56	MIA 12:39	17%	4%	0.5%	93%worse than usual
AA 1173 American Flight history →	DCA 09:55	MIA 12:38	20%	4%	0.5%	88%
WN 1908 Southwest	BWI 11:41	MIA 14:28	23%	9%	0.4%	no record
WN 4737 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:30	MIA 14:05	24%	9%	0.4%	80%
UA 1379 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	FLL 20:32	26%	11%	0.4%	81%
F9 1665 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:47	MIA 13:43	28%	11%	1.3%	67%
WN 2559 Southwest	DCA 15:00	FLL 17:45	28%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 3648 Southwest	DCA 16:01	FLL 18:52	30%	8%	0.3%	no record
AA 1627 American Flight history →	DCA 11:55	MIA 14:38	31%	7%	0.5%	76%
WN 945 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:06	FLL 14:46	31%	9%	0.5%	82%worse than usual
DL 2576 Delta Flight history →	DCA 14:43	MIA 17:33	32%	9%	0.4%	67%
WN 1003 Southwest	BWI 14:51	FLL 17:41	33%	11%	0.4%	no record
WN 947 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:30	FLL 18:15	33%	11%	0.5%	50%
AA 2664 American Flight history →	DCA 14:59	MIA 17:48	35%	8%	0.6%	75%worse than usual
AA 1299 American	DCA 15:10	MIA 18:01	35%	9%	0.6%	no record
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 16:00	FLL 18:41	37%	19%	0.8%	57%
WN 426 Southwest	BWI 19:55	MIA 22:40	37%	14%	0.8%	no record
B6 2433 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 09:55	PBI 12:23	37%	6%	4.8%	82%worse than usual
AA 2915 American Flight history →	DCA 13:44	MIA 16:29	37%	8%	0.6%	70%
WN 2290 Southwest	BWI 19:53	FLL 22:44	38%	11%	0.5%	no record
AA 1612 American Flight history →	DCA 13:58	MIA 16:49	38%	9%	0.6%	62%
WN 4783 Southwest	BWI 18:00	FLL 20:45	38%	12%	0.6%	no record
AA 2214 American	DCA 21:13	MIA 23:58	38%	10%	2.1%	no record
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 16:37	FLL 19:25	40%	17%	0.6%	61%
AA 973 American	DCA 17:36	MIA 20:31	40%	11%	0.7%	no record
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:05	FLL 15:47	40%	19%	2.3%	59%
AA 1779 American	BWI 19:11	MIA 22:01	42%	14%	0.8%	no record
WN 2868 Southwest	BWI 11:30	PBI 14:00	42%	15%	3.6%	no record
B6 1979 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 19:02	FLL 21:50	43%	17%	0.6%	56%
AA 3244 American Flight history →	DCA 18:55	MIA 21:45	43%	10%	0.8%	49%
AA 1619 American Flight history →	BWI 18:39	MIA 21:25	44%	15%	0.7%	64%
AA 582 American	DCA 19:06	MIA 21:48	45%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 2281 American Flight history →	DCA 11:51	PBI 14:20	45%	8%	7.5%	71%worse than usual
WN 1005 Southwest	BWI 20:30	PBI 23:10	46%	12%	1.2%	no record
AA 1233 American Flight history →	DCA 20:40	MIA 23:28	46%	13%	1.6%	63%
WN 437 Southwest	BWI 20:36	MIA 23:14	47%	11%	1.2%	no record
F9 2959 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 17:40	FLL 20:23	48%	23%	0.9%	53%
B6 23 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:00	PBI 20:35	49%	15%	5.5%	61%
WN 3072 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:35	FLL 23:20	50%	12%	0.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON