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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 134 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4933 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 4933 SJC 06:15 → LGB 07:35 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 751 SFO 19:46 → LAX 21:06 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time
Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 4933 Southwest Flight history → SJC 06:15 LGB 07:35 2% 1% 0.5% 98%
WN 4421 Southwest Flight history → OAK 06:00 ONT 07:25 2% 1% 0.5% 98%
WN 2222 Southwest Flight history → SFO 06:05 LAX 07:35 2% 1% 0.6% 100%
WN 4879 Southwest Flight history → SJC 06:35 ONT 07:55 2% 1% 0.6% 98%
UA 2127 United Flight history → SFO 06:00 LAX 07:39 3% 1% 0.5% 96%
WN 4843 Southwest Flight history → SJC 06:30 BUR 07:40 3% 1% 0.9% 98%
WN 3707 Southwest Flight history → SJC 06:30 SNA 07:55 3% 1% 0.7% 100%
WN 3084 Southwest Flight history → OAK 06:45 SNA 08:10 4% 1% 0.6% 95%
WN 264 Southwest Flight history → OAK 07:30 LGB 08:55 4% 1% 0.6% 92%
AA 6294 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 06:00 LAX 07:41 4% 2% 0.6% 89%
WN 3035 Southwest Flight history → OAK 07:05 BUR 08:20 5% 1% 1.0% 91%
UA 689 United SFO 06:45 BUR 08:04 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2419 Southwest Flight history → OAK 06:50 LAX 08:15 5% 1% 0.6% 76%
WN 4850 Southwest Flight history → SJC 07:00 LAX 08:25 5% 1% 0.6% 91%
DL 1598 Delta Flight history → SFO 07:00 LAX 08:30 5% 2% 0.7% 94%
WN 4958 Southwest Flight history → SJC 09:55 LGB 11:15 6% 2% 0.5% 92%
AS 1620 Alaska Flight history → SFO 06:00 LAX 07:32 6% 1% 0.6% 94%
WN 1328 Southwest Flight history → OAK 10:30 LGB 11:55 6% 2% 0.6% 86%
WN 3708 Southwest Flight history → SJC 08:25 SNA 09:50 6% 2% 0.7% 96%
WN 3036 Southwest Flight history → OAK 09:15 BUR 10:25 6% 1% 1.0% 95%
UA 1896 United Flight history → SFO 08:50 LAX 10:34 6% 3% 0.5% 85%
WN 4927 Southwest Flight history → OAK 08:30 SNA 10:00 7% 1% 0.6% 86%
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → SFO 09:20 LAX 10:53 7% 2% 0.7% 91%
UA 2363 United Flight history → SFO 08:33 BUR 09:57 7% 3% 0.6% 84%
AS 3244 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 06:35 SNA 08:15 7% 3% 0.7% 93%
UA 5236 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 07:15 SNA 09:02 7% 4% 0.7% 86%
WN 2079 Southwest Flight history → SJC 09:55 BUR 11:05 7% 2% 1.0% 85%
DL 1654 Delta Flight history → SJC 07:00 LAX 08:26 7% 2% 0.7% 91%
WN 3626 Southwest Flight history → SJC 09:30 SNA 10:55 8% 2% 0.7% 93%
DL 2965 Delta Flight history → SJC 11:33 LAX 12:55 8% 3% 0.7% 92%
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SJC 14:59 LAX 16:24 9% 4% 0.5% 92%
WN 3062 Southwest Flight history → OAK 10:50 ONT 12:10 9% 3% 0.6% 96%
DL 4451 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SJC 09:55 LAX 11:20 9% 3% 0.5% 93%
UA 589 United Flight history → SFO 19:10 SNA 20:55 9% 5% 0.6% 89%
WN 4903 Southwest Flight history → OAK 09:15 LAX 10:40 9% 2% 0.6% 94%
WN 1240 Southwest Flight history → OAK 10:00 SNA 11:25 9% 2% 0.6% 76%
WN 3151 Southwest Flight history → SJC 10:50 ONT 12:05 10% 2% 0.6% 88%
DL 3822 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SJC 16:30 LAX 17:56 11% 5% 0.5% 93%
WN 1268 Southwest Flight history → OAK 11:05 BUR 12:15 11% 2% 0.8% 69%
WN 3661 Southwest Flight history → SJC 12:10 BUR 13:20 11% 3% 0.9% 94%
WN 4957 Southwest Flight history → SFO 09:25 LAX 11:05 11% 3% 0.6% 41%
DL 1438 Delta Flight history → SJC 18:12 LAX 19:34 11% 5% 0.8% 93%
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SJC 20:25 LAX 22:00 11% 6% 0.6% 92%
AA 6336 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 09:08 LAX 10:48 11% 4% 0.7% 86%
WN 2384 Southwest Flight history → SJC 11:35 LAX 12:55 11% 2% 0.6% 68%
WN 3710 Southwest Flight history → SJC 12:05 SNA 13:30 12% 3% 0.6% 84%
UA 2610 United Flight history → SFO 13:55 LAX 15:35 13% 5% 0.5% 78%
WN 4907 Southwest Flight history → SJC 19:50 LGB 21:10 13% 5% 0.5% 79%
UA 2367 United Flight history → SFO 10:19 LAX 11:57 13% 4% 0.5% 78%
WN 3086 Southwest Flight history → OAK 12:05 SNA 13:35 13% 2% 0.6% 86%
WN 4953 Southwest Flight history → OAK 20:30 SNA 22:05 13% 2% 0.6% 79%
DL 1715 Delta Flight history → SFO 11:45 LAX 13:17 13% 5% 0.7% 60%
UA 643 United Flight history → SFO 10:23 SNA 12:06 14% 7% 0.5% 82%
UA 1754 United Flight history → SFO 16:25 LAX 18:05 14% 6% 0.5% 73%
WN 2951 Southwest Flight history → OAK 14:30 LGB 15:55 14% 4% 0.5% 73%
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SJC 09:28 SNA 11:11 14% 5% 0.6% 67%
UA 2115 United Flight history → SFO 10:23 BUR 11:49 14% 5% 0.6% 81%
WN 3057 Southwest Flight history → OAK 19:20 LGB 20:50 14% 3% 0.6% 82%
UA 1321 United Flight history → SFO 17:54 BUR 19:20 14% 9% 0.6% 86%
UA 571 United Flight history → SFO 12:00 SNA 13:45 15% 6% 0.6% 70%
UA 1506 United Flight history → SFO 12:15 LAX 13:55 15% 5% 0.5% 71%
UA 298 United Flight history → SFO 19:40 LAX 21:24 15% 5% 0.5% 69%
UA 2661 United Flight history → SFO 10:40 ONT 12:12 15% 5% 0.6% 78%
UA 1427 United Flight history → SFO 18:45 LAX 20:29 15% 6% 0.5% 83%
WN 4877 Southwest Flight history → SJC 10:25 LAX 11:45 15% 2% 0.6% 91%
WN 3684 Southwest Flight history → SJC 17:05 LGB 18:25 15% 6% 0.5% 64%
WN 397 Southwest Flight history → SJC 13:00 SNA 14:25 15% 3% 0.6% 92%
UA 2850 United Flight history → SFO 20:55 LAX 22:37 16% 6% 0.5% 65%
UA 2764 United Flight history → SFO 16:15 BUR 17:42 16% 8% 0.6% 56%
AA 6330 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 11:40 LAX 13:20 16% 8% 0.6% 52%
UA 626 United Flight history → SFO 13:50 BUR 15:17 16% 8% 0.6% 69%
UA 2179 United Flight history → SFO 22:37 LAX 00:19 16% 6% 0.6% 72%
WN 4931 Southwest Flight history → SJC 14:05 BUR 15:15 16% 4% 0.8% 67%
UA 552 United Flight history → SFO 21:00 ONT 22:37 16% 8% 0.6% 83%
DL 2725 Delta Flight history → SFO 14:30 LAX 15:56 18% 6% 0.7% 49%
WN 4978 Southwest Flight history → OAK 13:20 LAX 14:45 18% 4% 0.5% 76%
UA 1367 United Flight history → SFO 20:20 BUR 21:47 18% 9% 0.6% 85%
AS 1329 Alaska Flight history → SFO 08:30 LAX 10:07 18% 2% 0.6% 64%
WN 4977 Southwest Flight history → OAK 17:00 BUR 18:10 18% 6% 0.8% 65%
WN 3635 Southwest Flight history → SFO 10:20 BUR 11:40 18% 5% 1.6% 45%
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:39 SNA 15:31 18% 9% 0.7% 80%
OO 3464 SkyWest SJC 19:08 SNA 20:49 19% 6% 0.7% no record
WN 381 Southwest Flight history → OAK 15:15 ONT 16:35 19% 5% 0.5% 69%
WN 3087 Southwest Flight history → OAK 13:55 SNA 15:25 19% 3% 0.6% 76%
WN 940 Southwest Flight history → SJC 14:30 LAX 15:50 19% 4% 0.6% 55%
WN 3037 Southwest Flight history → OAK 13:00 BUR 14:10 19% 3% 0.9% 88%
AA 6188 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:39 LAX 15:19 19% 8% 0.6% 44%
WN 3563 Southwest Flight history → OAK 15:30 BUR 16:40 19% 5% 0.8% 65%
WN 4229 Southwest Flight history → OAK 17:30 LAX 18:55 19% 6% 0.5% 72%
WN 3089 Southwest Flight history → OAK 18:35 SNA 20:05 19% 3% 0.6% 88%
WN 3663 Southwest Flight history → SJC 17:05 BUR 18:15 19% 5% 0.9% 84%
WN 3088 Southwest Flight history → OAK 16:30 SNA 17:55 20% 4% 0.6% 60%
WN 3691 Southwest Flight history → SJC 16:40 ONT 18:00 20% 6% 0.5% 50%
DL 2267 Delta Flight history → SFO 16:39 LAX 18:13 20% 6% 0.7% 53%
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 15:48 SNA 17:26 20% 6% 0.7% 85%
AA 6221 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 16:04 LAX 17:45 21% 9% 0.6% 47%
WN 3210 Southwest Flight history → SJC 19:40 SNA 21:05 21% 4% 0.6% 75%
WN 4541 Southwest Flight history → SJC 16:20 LAX 17:40 21% 4% 0.6% 74%
DL 1559 Delta Flight history → SFO 20:05 LAX 21:40 21% 6% 0.7% 67%
WN 3692 Southwest Flight history → SJC 20:15 ONT 21:35 22% 10% 0.5% 45%
WN 3712 Southwest Flight history → SJC 15:15 SNA 16:35 22% 5% 0.6% 65%
UA 5650 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 16:30 SNA 18:22 22% 9% 0.7% 72%
WN 3714 Southwest Flight history → SJC 18:30 SNA 19:55 22% 5% 0.6% 82%
AA 6428 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 10:09 LAX 11:49 22% 7% 0.7% 59%
DL 1629 Delta Flight history → SFO 18:43 LAX 20:10 22% 6% 0.7% 64%
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 18:08 SNA 19:47 22% 7% 0.8% 71%
WN 263 Southwest Flight history → OAK 19:00 BUR 20:15 22% 6% 0.8% 65%
WN 4865 Southwest Flight history → OAK 20:25 BUR 21:40 22% 6% 0.8% 67%
WN 271 Southwest Flight history → OAK 19:00 ONT 20:20 22% 6% 0.6% 62%
WN 3713 Southwest Flight history → SJC 17:00 SNA 18:20 22% 5% 0.6% 58%
WN 3680 Southwest Flight history → SJC 18:20 LAX 19:40 23% 6% 0.6% 38%
WN 3681 Southwest Flight history → SJC 20:20 LAX 21:45 23% 6% 0.6% 31%
AS 1604 Alaska Flight history → SFO 13:51 LAX 15:22 23% 5% 0.6% 71%
WN 3053 Southwest Flight history → OAK 16:00 LAX 17:25 24% 6% 0.5% 55%
AS 3037 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 21:43 LAX 23:21 24% 9% 0.7% 27%
WN 2396 Southwest Flight history → OAK 19:45 LAX 21:10 24% 6% 0.5% 50%
AS 3237 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 12:30 SNA 14:09 25% 9% 0.7% 12%
UA 5613 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 16:17 ONT 17:54 25% 13% 0.7% 67%
WN 278 Southwest Flight history → SFO 14:15 LAX 15:45 25% 5% 0.5% 20%
WN 3638 Southwest Flight history → SFO 15:00 BUR 16:20 26% 8% 1.3% 39%
AS 1523 Alaska Flight history → SFO 16:30 LAX 18:06 26% 8% 0.6% 58%
WN 3645 Southwest Flight history → SFO 17:40 LAX 19:20 27% 7% 0.5% 35%
AS 1602 Alaska Flight history → SFO 10:15 LAX 11:44 27% 4% 0.6% 27%
F9 2678 Frontier Flight history → SFO 09:33 ONT 11:07 27% 9% 1.9% 58%
F9 4082 Frontier Flight history → SJC 20:23 LAX 21:48 27% 8% 2.7% 75%
WN 4235 Southwest Flight history → SFO 12:00 LAX 13:30 28% 5% 0.5% 8%
AA 2567 American Flight history → SFO 20:11 LAX 21:49 28% 7% 0.6% 60%
AS 560 Alaska Flight history → SFO 10:37 SNA 12:16 30% 7% 0.6% 40%
WN 1839 Southwest Flight history → SJC 20:50 BUR 21:55 30% 10% 0.8% 69%
F9 3582 Frontier Flight history → SFO 17:26 SNA 19:08 33% 10% 0.8% 65%
WN 4228 Southwest Flight history → SFO 18:50 BUR 20:15 35% 13% 1.3% 49%
F9 2858 Frontier Flight history → SFO 20:23 LAX 21:59 37% 13% 0.9% 69%
WN 3648 Southwest Flight history → SFO 21:05 LAX 22:40 37% 8% 0.5% 21%
AS 751 Alaska Flight history → SFO 19:46 LAX 21:06 37% 7% 0.6% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON