Today: AA 4491 at 09:59 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–50%.

Safest bet today AA 4491 DCA 09:59 → LGA 11:25 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 5768 DCA 20:40 → LGA 21:59 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4491 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LGA 11:25	19%	5%	0.3%	85%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:00	LGA 12:09	25%	6%	0.2%	75%
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:59	LGA 15:31	28%	8%	0.3%	62%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:59	LGA 16:33	29%	9%	0.4%	64%
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:30	LGA 14:53	33%	8%	0.4%	67%
YX 4569 Republic	DCA 14:54	LGA 16:16	33%	7%	0.4%	no record
AA 4719 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:13	LGA 23:35	35%	9%	1.3%	67%
AA 4660 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:30	LGA 23:44	37%	9%	1.6%	70%
AA 4685 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:26	LGA 18:57	37%	11%	0.5%	55%
AA 4702 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:19	LGA 19:49	38%	11%	0.5%	51%
YX 4636 Republic	DCA 18:50	LGA 20:12	40%	8%	0.4%	no record
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:40	LGA 21:04	43%	12%	0.5%	48%
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:40	LGA 18:59	44%	11%	0.5%	51%
AA 2967 American	DCA 17:06	LGA 18:14	46%	14%	0.4%	no record
DL 5768 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:40	LGA 21:59	50%	15%	1.6%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON