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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 133 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3858 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 3858 SNA 06:45 → SJC 08:15 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3161 LAX 17:20 → SFO 18:40 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time
Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 3858 Southwest Flight history → SNA 06:45 SJC 08:15 2% 1% 0.7% 100%
WN 2415 Southwest Flight history → LAX 06:00 OAK 07:30 2% 1% 0.6% 95%
WN 3042 Southwest Flight history → ONT 06:10 OAK 07:35 2% 1% 0.6% 100%
WN 383 Southwest Flight history → ONT 06:30 SJC 07:50 2% 1% 0.6% 100%
WN 2430 Southwest Flight history → LAX 06:40 SJC 07:50 2% 1% 0.7% 94%
WN 4935 Southwest Flight history → SNA 07:00 OAK 08:40 3% 1% 0.6% 100%
UA 2647 United Flight history → LAX 06:00 SFO 07:35 3% 2% 0.6% 94%
WN 834 Southwest Flight history → BUR 07:20 SJC 08:35 3% 1% 1.3% 92%
WN 4947 Southwest Flight history → LGB 07:05 OAK 08:25 4% 1% 0.6% 100%
WN 3859 Southwest Flight history → SNA 08:10 SJC 09:30 4% 1% 0.7% 98%
WN 4919 Southwest Flight history → BUR 07:05 OAK 08:25 4% 1% 1.2% 98%
WN 2497 Southwest Flight history → LGB 07:00 SJC 08:10 5% 1% 0.6% 100%
WN 3848 Southwest Flight history → SNA 08:00 OAK 09:25 5% 1% 0.6% 100%
UA 2363 United Flight history → ONT 06:00 SFO 07:25 5% 2% 0.6% 91%
WN 3860 Southwest Flight history → SNA 09:55 SJC 11:10 6% 2% 0.7% 90%
WN 2431 Southwest Flight history → LAX 09:00 SJC 10:15 6% 2% 0.7% 92%
WN 835 Southwest Flight history → BUR 09:55 SJC 11:05 6% 2% 1.2% 86%
WN 802 Southwest Flight history → BUR 09:00 OAK 10:15 7% 2% 1.2% 96%
WN 3162 Southwest Flight history → ONT 10:50 SJC 12:00 7% 2% 0.6% 82%
DL 4451 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 07:55 SJC 09:10 8% 3% 0.6% 100%
AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 06:45 SFO 08:30 8% 4% 1.2% 93%
DL 2965 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:22 SJC 10:38 8% 3% 0.7% 92%
WN 3154 Southwest Flight history → ONT 11:05 OAK 12:20 8% 2% 0.6% 90%
WN 3014 Southwest Flight history → LAX 09:00 OAK 10:20 8% 2% 0.6% 83%
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 12:57 SJC 14:12 9% 5% 0.5% 90%
DL 3822 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 14:32 SJC 15:46 9% 6% 0.5% 95%
WN 3849 Southwest Flight history → SNA 10:05 OAK 11:30 9% 2% 0.6% 91%
WN 3861 Southwest Flight history → SNA 12:00 SJC 13:25 9% 3% 0.7% 91%
WN 2426 Southwest Flight history → LAX 06:55 SFO 08:15 10% 3% 0.6% 97%
AA 6336 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 07:00 SFO 08:37 10% 5% 0.7% 82%
WN 803 Southwest Flight history → BUR 11:35 OAK 12:50 11% 3% 1.0% 94%
WN 2488 Southwest Flight history → LGB 11:55 OAK 13:10 11% 3% 0.5% 82%
UA 1604 United Flight history → SNA 07:00 SFO 08:31 11% 4% 0.7% 69%
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 SFO 08:21 11% 3% 0.7% 94%
WN 836 Southwest Flight history → BUR 12:20 SJC 13:30 11% 3% 1.0% 67%
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 18:17 SJC 19:32 12% 6% 0.6% 88%
WN 4973 Southwest Flight history → LGB 12:00 SJC 13:10 13% 3% 0.5% 93%
WN 4747 Southwest Flight history → LGB 15:30 OAK 16:50 13% 5% 0.5% 66%
WN 3863 Southwest Flight history → SNA 15:00 SJC 16:20 13% 3% 0.7% 90%
DL 1438 Delta Flight history → LAX 16:00 SJC 17:12 13% 5% 0.7% 87%
UA 488 United Flight history → BUR 07:02 SFO 08:30 13% 5% 0.8% 80%
WN 4883 Southwest Flight history → BUR 15:15 SJC 16:30 13% 3% 1.0% 78%
UA 1372 United Flight history → LAX 07:30 SFO 09:06 13% 5% 0.6% 49%
WN 2432 Southwest Flight history → LAX 11:15 SJC 12:25 13% 3% 0.6% 79%
WN 4893 Southwest Flight history → LAX 11:55 OAK 13:15 14% 5% 0.5% 81%
WN 3082 Southwest Flight history → ONT 19:30 OAK 20:50 15% 7% 0.6% 76%
UA 520 United Flight history → LAX 09:10 SFO 10:45 15% 6% 0.5% 65%
WN 3155 Southwest Flight history → ONT 16:00 OAK 17:15 15% 5% 0.5% 79%
WN 3862 Southwest Flight history → SNA 13:30 SJC 14:50 15% 4% 0.7% 62%
WN 4884 Southwest Flight history → BUR 20:15 SJC 21:30 15% 6% 0.9% 67%
WN 3845 Southwest Flight history → ONT 16:00 SJC 17:10 16% 5% 0.5% 70%
WN 312 Southwest Flight history → SNA 20:30 OAK 22:00 16% 4% 0.6% 94%
WN 2433 Southwest Flight history → LAX 13:10 SJC 14:25 16% 4% 0.6% 77%
AS 1603 Alaska Flight history → LAX 07:15 SFO 08:39 16% 4% 0.7% 65%
WN 4936 Southwest Flight history → SNA 19:55 SJC 21:10 16% 5% 0.7% 64%
DL 3073 Delta Flight history → LAX 20:59 SJC 22:13 16% 6% 0.8% 82%
WN 840 Southwest Flight history → BUR 17:55 SJC 19:05 16% 5% 1.0% 88%
WN 4986 Southwest Flight history → SNA 12:20 OAK 13:45 16% 5% 0.6% 65%
DL 2725 Delta Flight history → LAX 12:00 SFO 13:26 16% 8% 0.7% 69%
WN 806 Southwest Flight history → BUR 17:00 OAK 18:15 16% 6% 0.9% 68%
UA 1791 United Flight history → LAX 10:55 SFO 12:30 16% 10% 0.5% 58%
WN 804 Southwest Flight history → BUR 13:05 OAK 14:20 16% 4% 1.0% 73%
UA 372 United Flight history → LAX 13:25 SFO 14:53 17% 9% 0.5% 65%
WN 2417 Southwest Flight history → LAX 15:30 OAK 16:50 17% 7% 0.5% 64%
UA 1375 United Flight history → ONT 13:50 SFO 15:15 17% 9% 0.6% 57%
WN 3864 Southwest Flight history → SNA 17:00 SJC 18:20 17% 5% 0.7% 53%
WN 342 Southwest Flight history → SNA 18:25 SJC 19:40 17% 5% 0.7% 74%
AS 3495 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 20:25 SFO 22:03 17% 6% 1.6% 32%
UA 233 United Flight history → LAX 17:05 SFO 18:33 18% 12% 0.6% 83%
WN 2500 Southwest Flight history → LGB 19:50 SJC 21:10 18% 5% 0.6% 68%
WN 4307 Southwest Flight history → LGB 16:30 SJC 17:45 18% 5% 0.6% 78%
WN 2490 Southwest Flight history → LGB 18:35 OAK 19:50 18% 5% 0.6% 59%
WN 805 Southwest Flight history → BUR 15:05 OAK 16:20 18% 5% 0.9% 68%
WN 808 Southwest Flight history → BUR 20:10 OAK 21:25 18% 6% 0.9% 62%
WN 3164 Southwest Flight history → ONT 18:35 SJC 19:45 18% 6% 0.6% 65%
AA 6330 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 09:22 SFO 10:56 19% 8% 0.6% 37%
AA 6188 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 11:34 SFO 13:08 19% 11% 0.6% 39%
AA 6510 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 22:32 SFO 23:59 19% 6% 0.7% 81%
AS 3248 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 18:03 SFO 19:33 19% 9% 1.3% 65%
WN 955 Southwest Flight history → LAX 15:15 SJC 16:25 19% 4% 0.6% 62%
DL 1715 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:20 SFO 10:42 19% 5% 0.7% 52%
WN 807 Southwest Flight history → BUR 18:35 OAK 19:50 19% 5% 0.9% 72%
UA 2019 United Flight history → LAX 16:14 SFO 17:42 20% 13% 0.5% 68%
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 16:12 SFO 17:50 20% 9% 1.2% 67%
UA 2657 United Flight history → SNA 18:20 SFO 19:51 20% 9% 0.8% 41%
UA 2056 United Flight history → LAX 21:34 SFO 23:02 20% 9% 0.6% 61%
AS 3342 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 09:00 SFO 10:36 20% 8% 0.8% 40%
UA 5562 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 09:45 SFO 11:21 20% 9% 0.8% 33%
WN 827 Southwest Flight history → BUR 08:55 SFO 10:15 20% 6% 1.6% 19%
UA 5624 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ONT 18:39 SFO 20:07 21% 13% 1.3% 16%
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 19:27 SFO 21:05 21% 9% 1.6% 50%
AS 3067 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 22:27 SFO 23:57 21% 8% 0.7% 36%
WN 4554 Southwest Flight history → LAX 21:05 OAK 22:30 22% 8% 0.6% 53%
WN 3853 Southwest Flight history → SNA 18:35 OAK 20:00 22% 6% 0.6% 45%
WN 2435 Southwest Flight history → LAX 19:55 SJC 21:15 22% 7% 0.6% 54%
AS 3486 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 10:50 SFO 12:27 22% 9% 0.8% 49%
AS 561 Alaska Flight history → SNA 13:06 SFO 14:51 22% 8% 0.8% 50%
AA 6260 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 20:38 SFO 22:14 22% 10% 0.7% 63%
WN 2418 Southwest Flight history → LAX 17:45 OAK 19:05 23% 8% 0.6% 80%
AA 6221 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 14:00 SFO 15:34 23% 12% 0.6% 39%
WN 170 Southwest Flight history → SNA 16:15 OAK 17:35 23% 6% 0.6% 60%
WN 2434 Southwest Flight history → LAX 17:00 SJC 18:15 23% 6% 0.6% 65%
AS 687 Alaska Flight history → LAX 08:20 SFO 09:45 23% 6% 0.7% 7%
UA 2386 United Flight history → BUR 10:53 SFO 12:21 24% 9% 0.8% 52%
UA 357 United Flight history → BUR 16:13 SFO 17:41 24% 10% 0.8% 46%
AS 1522 Alaska Flight history → LAX 13:28 SFO 14:51 24% 8% 0.6% 48%
UA 2823 United Flight history → SNA 14:47 SFO 16:18 24% 9% 0.7% 35%
AS 3269 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 14:46 SFO 16:20 24% 9% 0.8% 19%
WN 2165 Southwest Flight history → BUR 13:15 SFO 14:35 24% 7% 1.2% 53%
WN 375 Southwest Flight history → SNA 14:30 OAK 15:50 25% 7% 0.5% 54%
F9 1159 Frontier Flight history → ONT 08:58 SFO 10:30 25% 9% 1.3% 23%
WN 833 Southwest Flight history → BUR 16:30 SFO 17:55 25% 10% 1.3% 46%
WN 4950 Southwest Flight history → LAX 12:25 SFO 13:40 25% 9% 0.5% 22%
UA 2681 United Flight history → LAX 18:45 SFO 20:10 25% 13% 0.6% 38%
UA 1195 United Flight history → LAX 20:10 SFO 21:38 25% 10% 0.6% 28%
AS 1607 Alaska Flight history → LAX 10:03 SFO 11:27 25% 8% 0.7% 33%
DL 1559 Delta Flight history → LAX 17:35 SFO 18:52 25% 10% 0.7% 69%
DL 2986 Delta Flight history → LAX 22:00 SFO 23:19 25% 7% 0.7% 60%
UA 1453 United Flight history → BUR 13:45 SFO 15:13 25% 9% 0.9% 66%
WN 2427 Southwest Flight history → LAX 10:00 SFO 11:20 26% 9% 0.5% 19%
UA 1508 United Flight history → BUR 18:42 SFO 20:10 26% 10% 0.8% 41%
F9 3581 Frontier Flight history → SNA 13:16 SFO 14:58 26% 10% 1.2% 61%
AA 2567 American Flight history → LAX 17:52 SFO 19:21 27% 16% 0.6% 57%
UA 2854 United Flight history → BUR 20:22 SFO 21:50 28% 10% 0.8% 53%
DL 2267 Delta Flight history → LAX 14:25 SFO 15:44 28% 10% 0.7% 50%
AS 1610 Alaska Flight history → LAX 16:25 SFO 17:47 28% 11% 0.6% 54%
F9 2457 Frontier Flight history → LAX 18:11 SJC 19:28 28% 14% 1.8% 81%
F9 4593 Frontier Flight history → LAX 19:07 SFO 20:45 30% 16% 1.6% 49%
DL 2197 Delta Flight history → LAX 20:30 SFO 21:49 31% 9% 0.7% 45%
WN 3168 Southwest Flight history → LAX 14:10 SFO 15:25 33% 10% 0.5% 12%
AS 1601 Alaska Flight history → LAX 19:34 SFO 20:57 33% 10% 0.6% 15%
WN 2429 Southwest Flight history → LAX 21:05 SFO 22:25 36% 10% 0.5% 9%
WN 3161 Southwest Flight history → LAX 17:20 SFO 18:40 37% 14% 0.6% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON