tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 88 minLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation MIA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Tuesday to about 3

Current state
Resolved at 6:56 PM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Tuesday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 68 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Tuesday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.8 over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 10:00 AM EDT · 19.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Tuesday

    What changed: about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 68 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Tuesday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.0 over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 11:00 AM EDT · 18.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 15:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Tuesday to about 3

    What changed: about 4 → 3

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 68 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~2.7 over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 6:00 PM EDT · 11.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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