Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Tuesday to about 3
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- Resolved at 7:56 AM EDT
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 14 cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Tuesday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 67 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.6 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 26, 4:00 PM EDT · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-26 20:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Tuesday
What changed: about 14 → 16 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 69 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (24%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~16.3 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 26, 9:00 PM EDT · 16.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-27 02:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 11 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Tuesday
What changed: about 16 → 11 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 69 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.0 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Oct 27, 3:00 AM EDT · 10.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-27 08:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Tuesday
What changed: about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 69 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.6 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Oct 27, 4:00 AM EDT · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-27 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 4 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Tuesday
What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 69 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.6 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Oct 27, 5:00 AM EDT · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-27 09:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Tuesday to about 3
What changed: about 4 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 69 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.7 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Oct 27, 7:00 AM EDT · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-27 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?