tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation MIA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Tuesday to about 3

Current state
Resolved at 9:26 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 20 cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~19.8 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 7:00 PM EDT · 22.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 23:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 14 among Miami departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

    What changed: about 20 → 14 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 96 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~13.7 over 96 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 6:00 AM EDT · 11.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Miami departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

    What changed: about 14 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 96 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.7 over 96 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 7:00 AM EDT · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Tuesday to about 3

    What changed: about 8 → 3

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 96 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~2.6 over 96 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 8:00 AM EDT · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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