tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 31%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 4:26 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 2:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-27 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 76 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 2:00 AM EDT · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 06:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 31%, near normal

    What changed: 40% → 31%; calm-weather level 18%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 3:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-27 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)31% over 76 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 3:00 AM EDT · 7.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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