tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation MIA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to about 2

Current state
Resolved at 10:26 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 10 cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Tuesday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 60 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.4 over 60 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 3:00 AM EDT · 16.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 6 among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Tuesday

    What changed: about 10 → 6 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 60 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.2 over 60 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 8:00 AM EDT · 11.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to about 2

    What changed: about 6 → 2

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 60 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-27 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~2.1 over 60 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 9:00 AM EDT · 10.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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