Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday to about 3
- Current state
- Resolved at 1:57 AM EDT
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 84 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Tuesday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-27 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.9 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 26, 9:00 AM EDT · 22.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-26 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday
What changed: about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 83 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Tuesday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-27 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.7 over 83 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 26, 10:00 AM EDT · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-26 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday
What changed: about 10 → 6 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 84 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Tuesday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-27 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.1 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 26, 11:00 AM EDT · 21.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-26 15:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday to about 3
What changed: about 6 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 82 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-27 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.0 over 82 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Oct 27, 1:00 AM EDT · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-27 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?