Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 33%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:56 PM PDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 43% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Tuesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-27 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 43% over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Oct 27, 8:00 AM PDT · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-27 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 33%, near normal
What changed: 43% → 33%; calm-weather level 25%
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-27 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 33% over 72 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Oct 27, 3:00 PM PDT · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-27 22:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?