Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday to 29%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 2:56 PM PDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 44% delay risk for SFO departures 3–6 PM Tuesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-27 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Oct 27, 9:00 AM PDT · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-27 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday to 29%, near normal
What changed: 44% → 29%; calm-weather level 25%
Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-27 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 29% over 114 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Oct 27, 2:00 PM PDT · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-27 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?