tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 79 minLightning <1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for SFO departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for SFO departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-27 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 138 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Oct 27, 10:00 AM PDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Tue Oct 27, 12:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.