tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 72 minLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model forecasts 52% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View DCAFlights at DCA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 48 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 4:00 PM EDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Oct 17, 6:01 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.