tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Austin departure delays worsen: 85% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.)
Started
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    Austin departures running late: 62% left 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 21 departures that took off between 6:20 PM and 7:20 PM CDT, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window6:20 PM–7:20 PM CDT
    Sample21 flights, 13 late (62%)
    Comparison37% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour
    Median delay20.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 00:20 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Observed

    Austin departure delays worsen: 85% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 62% → 85%

    Of 13 departures that took off between 9:05 PM and 10:05 PM CDT, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 48% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window9:05 PM–10:05 PM CDT
    Sample13 flights, 11 late (85%)
    Comparison48% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour
    Median delay29.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 03:05 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 30, 4:30 AM CDT: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.