Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 31%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 7:26 AM CDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Austin departures noon–3 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 30, 3:00 AM CDT · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-30 08:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 31%, near normal
What changed: 40% → 31%; calm-weather level 27%
Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 31% over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 30, 6:00 AM CDT · 4.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-30 12:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?