tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 66 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay AUS departures

Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 64%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View AUSFlights at AUS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Austin departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 6:00 AM CDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 55 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 6:00 AM CDT · 10.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 12:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 64%

    What changed: 52% → 64% since the 6:00 AM CDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)64% over 55 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 2:00 PM CDT · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 30, 6:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.