tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 79%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
Create monitor View LASFlights at LAS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 PM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 29, 7:00 PM PDT · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 63%

    What changed: 53% → 63% since the 7:00 PM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 8:00 AM PDT · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 75%

    What changed: 63% → 75% since the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)75% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 12:00 PM PDT · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 72%

    What changed: 75% → 72% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)72% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 3:00 PM PDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 79%

    What changed: 72% → 79% since the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)79% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 4:00 PM PDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 23:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 30, 6:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.