tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 83 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 63%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 69 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 11:00 AM PDT · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 70%

    What changed: 57% → 70% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)70% over 69 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 12:00 PM PDT · 7.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 65%

    What changed: 70% → 65% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 3:00 PM PDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 73%

    What changed: 65% → 73% since the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 4:00 PM PDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 23:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 63%

    What changed: 73% → 63% since the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 8:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 8:00 PM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 30, 9:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.