Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 22%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 4:55 AM CDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Austin departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 1:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-31 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 31, 1:00 AM CDT · 6.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-31 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 35%
What changed: 47% → 35% since the 1:00 AM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 2:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-31 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 35% over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 31, 2:00 AM CDT · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-31 08:28 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 22%, near normal
What changed: 35% → 22%; calm-weather level 16%
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 4:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-31 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 22% over 50 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 31, 4:00 AM CDT · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-31 09:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?