Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 33%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 4:55 AM CDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Austin departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-31 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 48% over 72 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 31, 3:00 AM CDT · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-31 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 33%, near normal
What changed: 48% → 33%; calm-weather level 25%
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 4:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-31 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 33% over 72 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 31, 4:00 AM CDT · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-31 09:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?