Phoenix aircraft turns back near normal: 1 of 17 departures in the next 90 min are tight

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1. Initial Observed Sat Oct 31, 3:25 PM MST

   Phoenix: 15 of 52 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

   Of the 63 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 3:25 PM and 4:55 PM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 52. For 15 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

   Evidence for this update

   Departures scheduled	3:25 PM–4:55 PM MST · 63 departures, aircraft known for 52
   Tight turns	15 (29%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure
   Inbound not yet in	0 not taken off · 9 in the air
   Method	SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
   Tightest	OO 6030 to SFO at 3:29 PM: aircraft N614UX, inbound OO 5696 from LAX (airborne), -10 min to turn
   Tightest	WN 3208 to DAL at 3:35 PM: aircraft N436WN, inbound WN 2890 from LGB (airborne), -9 min to turn
   Tightest	WN 2279 to LAS at 3:42 PM: aircraft N8547V, inbound WN 2928 from ELP (airborne), 1 min to turn
   Tightest	AA 2332 to RDU at 3:41 PM: aircraft N956XV, inbound AA 2137 from LAX (airborne), 8 min to turn
   Tightest	WN 3171 to SEA at 3:52 PM: aircraft N8853Q, inbound WN 1643 from LAX (airborne), 13 min to turn
   Source event time	Sat Oct 31, 3:25 PM MST
   Ingested	Sat Oct 31, 3:25 PM MST
   Published here	Sat Oct 31, 3:25 PM MST (2026-10-31 22:25 UTC)
   Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules
   Provenance	inbound_aircraft inbound-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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2. Recovery Observed Sat Oct 31, 4:45 PM MST

   Phoenix aircraft turns back near normal: 1 of 17 departures in the next 90 min are tight

   What changed: tight share 29% at worst → 6% now

   Of the 17 departures scheduled from Phoenix (PHX) between 4:45 PM and 6:15 PM MST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.

   Evidence for this update

   Departures scheduled	4:45 PM–6:15 PM MST · 17 departures, aircraft known for 17
   Tight turns	1 (6%) with the inbound due under 35 min before departure
   Inbound not yet in	0 not taken off · 0 in the air
   Method	SFDPS flight-plan aircraft (flight_aircraft) -> previous flight into this airport; FAA wheels-on or arrival estimate + median taxi-in (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
   Tightest	AA 3237 to BFL at 4:53 PM: aircraft N754UW, inbound AA 1734 from MSN (landed), 29 min to turn
   Source event time	Sat Oct 31, 4:45 PM MST
   Ingested	Sat Oct 31, 4:45 PM MST
   Published here	Sat Oct 31, 4:45 PM MST (2026-10-31 23:45 UTC)
   Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules
   Provenance	inbound_aircraft inbound-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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