tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model now puts Phoenix departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 39%

Current state
Resolved at 8:57 AM MST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 209 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 209 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 5:00 PM MST · 14.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model now puts Phoenix departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 39%

    What changed: 41% → 45%; calm-weather level 39%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 239 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 8:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 239 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 8:00 AM MST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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