tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 78%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 67% delay risk for Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 180 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Sunday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 1:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 180 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 1:00 AM MST · 13.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 08:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 78%

    What changed: 67% → 78% since the 1:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 185 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Sunday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 1:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)78% over 185 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 1:00 PM MST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 21:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 1, 3:01 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.