tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 87 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model now puts Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday at 78%, close to its calm-weather level of 70%

Current state
Resolved at 8:58 PM MST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 66% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 118 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 10:00 PM MST · 21.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 06:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model now puts Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday at 78%, close to its calm-weather level of 70%

    What changed: 66% → 78%; calm-weather level 70%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 119 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 70%. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)78% over 119 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 8:00 PM MST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 03:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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