tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 87 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Monday to 33%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Phoenix departures midnight–3 AM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Phoenix midnight–3 AM Monday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 22 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 10:00 PM MST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 05:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Monday to 33%

    What changed: 44% → 33% since the 10:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Phoenix midnight–3 AM Monday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)33% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 11:00 PM MST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 06:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 12:01 AM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.