tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation MIA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday to about 2

Current state
Resolved at 4:27 PM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.6 over 85 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 11:00 PM EDT · 22.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 12 among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    What changed: about 7 → 12 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 89 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~11.7 over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 8:00 AM EST · 11.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    What changed: about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 89 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.7 over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 9:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 14:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    What changed: about 9 → 6 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 89 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.9 over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 10:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday to about 2

    What changed: about 6 → 2

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 89 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~1.8 over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 3:00 PM EST · 4.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 21:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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