tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 229 h staleForecast cycle 63 minLightning 229 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (229 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (229 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model raises Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 56%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 122 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 5:00 PM EST · 21.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 22:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday at 66%

    What changed: 43% → 66% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Monday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 122 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 4:00 AM EST · 9.3 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 10:42 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday at 51%

    What changed: 66% → 51% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 122 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 56%

    What changed: 51% → 56% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 122 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 10:00 AM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.