Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 84%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Monday
Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 48% over 87 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 14:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 57%
What changed: 48% → 57% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 87 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 10:00 AM EST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 54%
What changed: 57% → 54% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 87 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 2:00 PM EST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 70%
What changed: 54% → 70% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 70% over 87 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 4:00 PM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 84%
What changed: 70% → 84% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 83 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 84% over 83 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 5:00 PM EST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 22:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 84%
What changed: 84% → 84% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 59%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 84% over 82 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 7:00 PM EST · 0.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 01:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Mon Nov 2, 9:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.