tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 229 h staleForecast cycle 73 minLightning 229 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (229 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (229 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model raises Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 91%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Miami departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 153 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Monday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 153 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 7:00 AM EST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 13:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday at 58%

    What changed: 57% → 58% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 154 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 154 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 1:00 PM EST · 3.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 19:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 73%

    What changed: 58% → 73% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 155 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Monday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 155 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 4:00 PM EST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 91%

    What changed: 73% → 91% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 151 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Monday an average 91% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 65%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)91% over 151 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 5:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.