tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 229 h staleForecast cycle 65 minLightning 229 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (229 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (229 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 66%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 11:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 85 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 11:00 PM EDT · 22.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday at 62%

    What changed: 54% → 62% since the 11:00 PM EDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)62% over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 9:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 14:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday at 76%

    What changed: 62% → 76% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)76% over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 11:00 AM EST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 65%

    What changed: 76% → 65% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 84 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 5:00 PM EST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 66%

    What changed: 65% → 66% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 84 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 6:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 23:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Nov 1, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.