tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 228 h staleForecast cycle 62 minLightning 228 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (228 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (228 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 58%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
7
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 131 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Monday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 131 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 8:00 PM EST · 14.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 02:30 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday at 53%

    What changed: 40% → 53% since the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 130 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 130 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 08:29 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 72%

    What changed: 53% → 72% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 130 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Monday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)72% over 130 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 4:00 AM EST · 6.3 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 10:42 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 50%

    What changed: 72% → 50% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 130 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 130 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 56%

    What changed: 50% → 56% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 131 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 131 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 7:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 13:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  6. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 50%

    What changed: 56% → 50% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 131 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 131 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 8:00 AM EST · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 58%

    What changed: 50% → 58% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 130 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 130 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 10:00 AM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Nov 2, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.