tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model forecasts 40% delay risk for National departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for National departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 44 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 5:00 PM EST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 1, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.