tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay FLL departures

Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 73%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Monday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 2:00 AM EST · 11.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 08:29 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 72%

    What changed: 47% → 72% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Monday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)72% over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 4:00 AM EST · 9.3 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 10:42 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday at 62%

    What changed: 72% → 62% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Monday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)62% over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 73%

    What changed: 62% → 73% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Monday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 11:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 16:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.