tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Monday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 119 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 119 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 2:00 AM PST · 9.3 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 10:44 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 12:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.