tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay STL departures

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 73%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View STLFlights at STL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 57% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 27 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 9:00 AM CST · 11.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 69%

    What changed: 57% → 69% since the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)69% over 27 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 4:00 PM CST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 73%

    What changed: 69% → 73% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 28 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 8:00 PM CST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Nov 2, 9:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.