tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 47%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 12:58 PM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 54 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 7:00 PM CST · 21.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 02:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Tuesday to 47%, near normal

    What changed: 50% → 47%; calm-weather level 39%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 12:00 PM CST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 18:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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