tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model now puts St Louis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 38%

Current state
Resolved at 2:28 PM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View STLFlights at STL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for St Louis departures 3–6 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 44 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 5:00 PM CST · 21.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model now puts St Louis departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 38%

    What changed: 41% → 45%; calm-weather level 38%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 44 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 1:00 PM CST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 20:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?