tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DAL departures

Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 43%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Love Field departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 73 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 2:00 PM CST · 21.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday at 57%

    What changed: 45% → 57% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 3:00 AM CST · 7.7 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:21 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 43%

    What changed: 57% → 43% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 5:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Tue Nov 3, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.