tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay DAL departures

Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 86%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
7
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 64% delay risk for Love Field departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)64% over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 10:00 PM CST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 05:00 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 76%

    What changed: 64% → 76% since the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)76% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 10:00 AM CST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 16:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 74%

    What changed: 76% → 74% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)74% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 11:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 17:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 76%

    What changed: 74% → 76% since the 11:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)76% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 12:00 PM CST · 7.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 19:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 75%

    What changed: 76% → 75% since the 12:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)75% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 1:00 PM CST · 6.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  6. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 76%

    What changed: 75% → 76% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)76% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 2:00 PM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 86%

    What changed: 76% → 86% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 86% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)86% over 46 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 7:00 PM CST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 02:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Nov 2, 9:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.