Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 68%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 62% delay risk for Love Field departures 3–6 PM Monday
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Monday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 62% over 62 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 5:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 68%
What changed: 62% → 68% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Monday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 68% over 62 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 12:00 PM CST · 1.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 19:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 68%
What changed: 68% → 68% since the 12:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Monday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 68% over 62 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 1:00 PM CST · 0.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Mon Nov 2, 3:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.