tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 59 minLightning <1 minWeather observations <1 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DAL departures

Model raises Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 51%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Love Field departures noon–3 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 64 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 1:00 AM CST · 9.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 08:29 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday at 44%

    What changed: 56% → 44% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Monday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 64 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 5:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 51%

    What changed: 44% → 51% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 64 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 8:00 AM CST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Nov 2, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.