tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning <1 minWeather observations <1 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 53%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 62 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 5:00 AM PDT · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 59%

    What changed: 49% → 59% since the 5:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Sunday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 62 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 12:00 PM PDT · 1.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 53%

    What changed: 59% → 53% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Sunday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 62 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 2:00 PM PDT · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Oct 18, 3:01 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.