tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 58%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Sunday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 8:00 AM PDT · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 15:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday at 63%

    What changed: 48% → 63% since the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Sunday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 12:00 PM PDT · 4.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 58%

    What changed: 63% → 58% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 3:00 PM PDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Oct 18, 6:01 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.