tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 56%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 11:00 AM PDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 56%

    What changed: 44% → 56% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 8:00 PM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Oct 18, 9:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.