tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Major Resolved Delay TPA departures

Tampa departure delays worsen: 86% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    Tampa departures running late: 75% left 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 16 departures that took off between 7:07 PM and 8:07 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window7:07 PM–8:07 PM EST
    Sample16 flights, 12 late (75%)
    Comparison36% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour
    Median delay33.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 01:07 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Observed

    Tampa departure delays ease: 67% late in the last hour, still above normal

    What changed: late share 75% → 67%

    Of 18 departures that took off between 7:38 PM and 8:38 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window7:38 PM–8:38 PM EST
    Sample18 flights, 12 late (67%)
    Comparison40% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour
    Median delay32.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 01:38 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Observed

    Tampa departure delays worsen: 86% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 67% → 86%

    Of 14 departures that took off between 9:11 PM and 10:11 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Tampa typically sees 45% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window9:11 PM–10:11 PM EST
    Sample14 flights, 12 late (86%)
    Comparison45% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour
    Median delay91.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 03:11 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Tue Nov 3, 5:29 AM EST: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.