tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BNA departures

Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 32%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 8:26 AM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Nashville departures noon–3 PM Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 102 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 2:00 PM CST · 21.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 21:01 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday at 52%

    What changed: 42% → 52% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 103 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 12:00 AM CST · 11.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 06:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 41%

    What changed: 52% → 41% since the 12:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 103 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 1:00 AM CST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 32%, near normal

    What changed: 41% → 32%; calm-weather level 27%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)32% over 104 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 7:00 AM CST · 3.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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