tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BNA departures

Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Wednesday to 32%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 2:26 AM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BNAFlights at BNA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 94 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 AM–noon Wednesday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 94 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 12:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 06:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Wednesday to 32%, near normal

    What changed: 47% → 32%; calm-weather level 16%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 94 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 AM–noon Wednesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)32% over 94 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 1:00 AM CST · 6.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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